Choosing a Survey Sample When Data on the Population Are Limited: A Method Using Global Positioning Systems and Aerial and Satellite Photographs

Background Various methods have been proposed for sampling when data on the population are limited. However, these methods are often biased. We propose a new method to draw a population sample using Global Positioning Systems and aerial or satellite photographs. Results We randomly sampled Global Positioning System locations in designated areas. A circle was drawn around each location with radius representing 20 m. Buildings in the circle were identified from satellite photographs; one was randomly chosen. Interviewers selected one household from the building, and interviews were conducted with eligible household members. Conclusions Participants had known selection probabilities, allowing proper estimation of parameters of interest and their variances. The approach was made possible by recent technological developments and access to satellite photographs. &nbsp

Evaluation of the impact of 2 years of a dosing intervention on canine echinococcosis in the Alay Valley, Kyrgyzstan

Echinococcosis is a re-emerging zoonotic disease in Kyrgyzstan. In 2012, an echinococcosis control scheme was started that included dosing owned dogs in the Alay Valley, Kyrgyzstan with praziquantel. Control programmes require large investments of money and resources; as such it is important to evaluate how well these are meeting their targets. However, problems associated with echinococcosis control schemes include remoteness and semi-nomadic customs of affected communities, and lack of resources. These same problems apply to control scheme evaluations, and quick and easy assessment tools are highly desirable. Lot quality assurance sampling was used to assess the impact of approximately 2 years of echinococcosis control in the Alay valley. A pre-intervention coproELISA prevalence was established, and a 75% threshold for dosing compliance was set based on previous studies. Ten communities were visited in 2013 and 2014, with 18-21 dogs sampled per community, and questionnaires administered to dog owners. After 21 months of control efforts, 8/10 communities showed evidence of reaching the 75% praziquantel dosing target, although only 3/10 showed evidence of a reduction in coproELISA prevalence. This is understandable, since years of sustained control are required to effectively control echinococcosis, and efforts in the Alay valley should be and are being continued

A process for developing a sustainable and scalable approach to community engagement : community dialogue approach for addressing the drivers of antibiotic resistance in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND: Community engagement approaches that have impacted on health outcomes are often time intensive, small-scale and require high levels of financial and human resources. They can be difficult to sustain and scale-up in low resource settings. Given the reach of health services into communities in low income countries, the health system provides a valuable and potentially sustainable entry point that would allow for scale-up of community engagement interventions. This study explores the process of developing an embedded approach to community engagement taking the global challenge of antibiotic resistance as an example. METHODS: The intervention was developed using a sequential mixed methods study design. This consisted of: exploring the evidence base through an umbrella review, and identifying key international standards on the appropriate use of antibiotics; undertaking detailed formative research through a) a qualitative study to explore the most appropriate mechanisms through which to embed the intervention within the existing health system and community infrastructure, and to understand patterns of knowledge, attitudes and practice regarding antibiotics and antibiotic resistance; and b) a household survey - which drew on the qualitative findings - to quantify knowledge, and reported attitudes and practice regarding antibiotics and antibiotic resistance within the target population; and c) drawing on appropriate theories regarding change mechanisms and experience of implementing community engagement interventions to co-produce the intervention processes and materials with key stakeholders at policy, health system and community level. RESULTS: A community engagement intervention was co-produced and was explicitly designed to link into existing health system and community structures and be appropriate for the cultural context, and therefore have the potential to be implemented at scale. We anticipate that taking this approach increases local ownership, as well as the likelihood that the intervention will be sustainable and scalable. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the value of ensuring that a range of stakeholders co-produce the intervention, and ensuring that the intervention is designed to be appropriate for the health system, community and cultural context

Stratification of the severity of critically ill patients with classification trees

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Development of three classification trees (CT) based on the CART (<it>Classification and Regression Trees</it>), CHAID (<it>Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection</it>) and C4.5 methodologies for the calculation of probability of hospital mortality; the comparison of the results with the APACHE II, SAPS II and MPM II-24 scores, and with a model based on multiple logistic regression (LR).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Retrospective study of 2864 patients. Random partition (70:30) into a Development Set (DS) n = 1808 and Validation Set (VS) n = 808. Their properties of discrimination are compared with the ROC curve (AUC CI 95%), Percent of correct classification (PCC CI 95%); and the calibration with the Calibration Curve and the Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR CI 95%).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>CTs are produced with a different selection of variables and decision rules: CART (5 variables and 8 decision rules), CHAID (7 variables and 15 rules) and C4.5 (6 variables and 10 rules). The common variables were: inotropic therapy, Glasgow, age, (A-a)O2 gradient and antecedent of chronic illness. In VS: all the models achieved acceptable discrimination with AUC above 0.7. CT: CART (0.75(0.71-0.81)), CHAID (0.76(0.72-0.79)) and C4.5 (0.76(0.73-0.80)). PCC: CART (72(69-75)), CHAID (72(69-75)) and C4.5 (76(73-79)). Calibration (SMR) better in the CT: CART (1.04(0.95-1.31)), CHAID (1.06(0.97-1.15) and C4.5 (1.08(0.98-1.16)).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>With different methodologies of CTs, trees are generated with different selection of variables and decision rules. The CTs are easy to interpret, and they stratify the risk of hospital mortality. The CTs should be taken into account for the classification of the prognosis of critically ill patients.</p

A comparison between the APACHE II and Charlson Index Score for predicting hospital mortality in critically ill patients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Risk adjustment and mortality prediction in studies of critical care are usually performed using acuity of illness scores, such as Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), which emphasize physiological derangement. Common risk adjustment systems used in administrative datasets, like the Charlson index, are entirely based on the presence of co-morbid illnesses. The purpose of this study was to compare the discriminative ability of the Charlson index to the APACHE II in predicting hospital mortality in adult multisystem ICU patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This was a population-based cohort design. The study sample consisted of adult (>17 years of age) residents of the Calgary Health Region admitted to a multisystem ICU between April 2002 and March 2004. Clinical data were collected prospectively and linked to hospital outcome data. Multiple regression analyses were used to compare the performance of APACHE II and the Charlson index.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The Charlson index was a poor predictor of mortality (C = 0.626). There was minimal difference between a baseline model containing age, sex and acute physiology score (C = 0.74) and models containing either chronic health points (C = 0.76) or Charlson index variations (C = 0.75, 0.76, 0.77). No important improvement in prediction occurred when the Charlson index was added to the full APACHE II model (C = 0.808 to C = 0.813).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The Charlson index does not perform as well as the APACHE II in predicting hospital mortality in ICU patients. However, when acuity of illness scores are unavailable or are not recorded in a standard way, the Charlson index might be considered as an alternative method of risk adjustment and therefore facilitate comparisons between intensive care units.</p

Epidemiologic application of verbal autopsy to investigate the high occurrence of cancer along Huai River Basin, China

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In 2004, the media repeatedly reported water pollution and "cancer villages" along the Huai River in China. Due to the lack of death records for more than 30 years, a retrospective survey of causes of death using verbal autopsy was carried out to investigate cancer rates in this area.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>An epidemiologic study was designed to compare numbers of deaths and causes of death between the study areas with water pollution and the control areas without water pollution in S County and Y District in 2005. The study areas were selected based on the distribution of the Huai River and its tributaries. Verbal autopsy was used to assist cause of death (COD) diagnoses and to verify mortality rates. The standard mortality rates (SMRs) of cancer in the study area were compared with those in the control areas. In order to verify the difference between mortality rates due to cancers in the study and the control areas, patients who reported having cancer in the survey received a second diagnosis by national and provincial oncologists with pathological and laboratory examinations. Comparisons were made to determine if differential cancer prevalence rates in the study and control areas were similar to the difference in mortality due to cancer in these study and control areas. Mortality rates of cancers in study and control areas were also compared with national statistics for the rural population of China.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Over five years, 3,301 deaths were identified, including 1,158 cancer deaths. The annual average SMRs of cancer in the study areas of S County and Y District were 277.8/100,000 and 223.6/100,000, respectively, which is three to four times higher than those in the control areas. In addition, a total of 626 cases of cancer in the study and control areas were confirmed. The prevalence rates of cancer were 545/100,000 and 128.1/100,000 per year in the study and control areas in S County, respectively, and 440.9/100,000 and 200/100,000 per year in the study and control areas in Y District, respectively. The mortality and prevalence rates of digestive cancers were higher in the study areas than the control areas. In 2000, the SMR for cancer in rural areas nationwide was 120.9/100,000, and in study areas in S County and Y District, the excess rates of deaths were 184/100,000 and 138.8/100,000, respectively.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The death rates of digestive cancers were much higher in the study areas of S County and Y District. The patterns for between-area differences in prevalence and mortality rates of cancer were similar. Verbal autopsy is shown to be a useful tool in retrospective mortality surveys in low-resource areas with limited access to health care.</p

Risk factors for high anti-HHV-8 antibody titers (≥1:51,200) in black, HIV-1 negative South African cancer patients: a case control study

Background: Infection with human herpesvirus 8 (HHV-8) is the necessary causal agent in the development of Kaposi's sarcoma (KS). Infection with HIV-1, male gender and older age all increase risk for KS. However, the geographic distribution of HHV-8 and KS both prior to the HIV/AIDS epidemic and with HIV/AIDS suggest the presence of an additional co-factor in the development of KS. Methods: Between January 1994 and October 1997, we interviewed 2576 black in-patients with cancer in Johannesburg and Soweto, South Africa. Blood was tested for antibodies against HIV-1 and HHV-8 and the study was restricted to 2191 HIV-1 negative patients. Antibodies against the latent nuclear antigen of HHV-8 encoded by orf73 were detected with an indirect immunofluorescence assay. We examined the relationship between high anti-HHV-8 antibody titers (≥1:51,200) and sociodemographic and behavioral factors using unconditional logistic regression models. Variables that were significant at p = 0.10 were included in multivariate analysis. Results: Of the 2191 HIV-1 negative patients who did not have Kaposi's sarcoma, 854 (39.0%) were positive for antibodies against HHV-8 according to the immunofluorescent assay. Among those seropositive for HHV-8, 530 (62.1%) had low titers (1:200), 227 (26.6%) had medium titers (1:51,200) and 97 (11.4%) had highest titers (1:204,800). Among the 2191 HIV-1 negative patients, the prevalence of high anti-HHV-8 antibody titers (≥1:51,200) was independently associated with increasing age (ptrend = 0.04), having a marital status of separated or divorced (p = 0.003), using wood, coal or charcoal as fuel for cooking 20 years ago instead of electricity (p = 0.02) and consuming traditional maize beer more than one time a week (p = 0.02; p-trend for increasing consumption = 0.05) although this may be due to chance given the large number of predictors considered in this analysis. Conclusions: Among HIV-negative subjects, patients with high anti-HHV-8 antibody titers are characterized by older age. Other associations that may be factors in the development of high anti- HHV-8 titers include exposure to poverty or a low socioeconomic status environment and consumption of traditional maize beer. The relationship between these variables and high anti- HHV-8 titers requires further, prospective study